There were a couple of Tornado Warnings in the southern region of the Kansas City area, down around Bulter Missouri, and along MO-7 Highway from Garden City to Clinton. A report came in that a brief, weak tornado touched down near the Ckinton Airport. I am going to take a moment to bragg. I called the storm that went through Butler when it was just outside of LaCygne Kansas. I could see the signature on the screen, and several minutes later, the NWS issued a tornado warning on the storm.
Looking at all the products, and the discussions that are taking place, it appears that the significant weather from this next storm will be well east of the Kansas City area. Yes, the NWS has Kansas City at a Level 2 threat for Storms, but they also have us on the western edge of the 5% chance of tornados (see graphic below). This does not mean that it will not change, for the better or worse, over the next 24 hours.
Despite the changes in the Kansas City Forecast, the National Weather Service has kept the Kansas City area under a Level 2 Threat for Severe Weather.
As for the FIFA game at GEHA Field on Tuesday, the weather looks to be perfect. Mostly clear, high around 82 degrees, no weather expected until Wednesday afternoon. Again, this is Kansas City and the weather can change on a dime without notice.
WEDNESDAY (as of 4:18am, Wednesday June 17, 2026)
- Strong southwesterly winds, from the morning to the early afternoon
- 15-25 mph sustained winds areawide through the afternoon
- Gusts up to 50 mph possible
- Winds expected to ease during the afternoon
- Severe storms expected later today (3-8 PM)
- Initially discrete storms evolving into a line of thunderstorms moving from northwest to southeast
- Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.
Next chance of Storms and Percipitation …. Saturday
Regional Weather Forecast
…SUMMARY…
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected today into tonight, with the peak threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Several intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven large hail will all be possible.
…Midwest including Illinois/Indiana/Missouri/Ohio… A very active/potentially dangerous day is expected today into tonight, although some sub-regional forecast details remain a bit uncertain. This is largely attributable to an upscale-growing intense MCS which has been evolving in the predawn hours across central/eastern Iowa, moving south of the I-80 corridor as of 730am CDT. Measured significant wind gusts in excess of 80 mph have been observed before sunrise, including a measured 94 mph measured wind gust in Marshall County, Iowa.
This intense and increasingly well-organized MCS will continue to be
influenced by an extremely strong southwesterly jet of 70 kt and robust warm advection/moisture transport, and likely continue
southeastward from southeast Iowa into north-central/west-central Illinois. This will likely include an increasing potential for
surface-based storms and an appreciable uptick in damaging wind/tornado potential early today, especially on the
south-southwest flank of the MCS in closer proximity to the northeastward-shifting warm front.
Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north-northeastward across Indiana/Ohio. New severe storm development, perhaps MCV-influenced and transitioning out of the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible across Indiana into Ohio. Shear profiles will be excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. The warm frontal position will need to be monitored northward toward the Indiana/Michigan border vicinity. Even if instability is elevated into Michigan, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado risk.
To the west, rapid air mass recovery is expected on the west-southwestern flank of the early day MCS from Missouri into central/possibly parts of northern Illinois, even where appreciable early day MCS impacts occur early. This recovery will be fueled by mid-June insolation/moisture content and robust advection, again attributable to atypically robust (50-65 kt) low/mid-tropospheric west-southwesterly flow by mid-June/diurnal standards. In the presence of 65-70 F surface dewpoints, this will likely result in a corridor of 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE.
This will likely set the stage for the development of a broken line of intense supercells, potentially favoring prior outflow (or outflow-augmented warm front) and post-MCS recovery zone of differential heating across Illinois and perhaps eventually into western Indiana. Given the clearly supercellular shear profiles and ample venting aloft, linear storm mode is unlikely for most of the event. Long-tracked supercells producing tornadoes and damaging large hail are likely. Some strong to potentially intense tornadoes are plausible given the magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow, and again potentially heightened in vicinity of the prior outflow/warm front. Some damaging wind threat will likely also increase by evening as storms continue across Indiana into Ohio and potentially southward toward the Ohio River.
Kansas City Area Forecast
(as of Wednesday, June 17, 2026 @ 10:00am)
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 3pm and 5pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 100. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light west northwest. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
(as of Tiuesday, June 16, 2026 @ 12:00pm)
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 99. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 18 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 1am. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Northwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
The images below are screenshots taken from my computer, and from my cell phone, showing the tornadic cells outside of Butler and Clinton. Only Clinton has an observation of a weak tornado on the ground as of the updating of this post.
